{"id":43240,"date":"2025-06-19T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-19-06-25\/"},"modified":"2025-06-19T17:23:26","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T20:23:26","slug":"cmf-pre-market-19-06-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-19-06-25\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 19-06-25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><em>Eliminar pesos y mantener la desinflaci\u00f3n<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>La inflaci\u00f3n minorista del mes de mayo sorprendi\u00f3 las estimaciones de los analistas, y la deflaci\u00f3n mayorista termin\u00f3 por convencer a los inversores de que la variaci\u00f3n de precios se mantendr\u00e1 por debajo del 1,5% hasta las elecciones. Por lo menos, as\u00ed lo refleja la inflaci\u00f3n breakeven del mercado de bonos, que ayer cerr\u00f3 con una variaci\u00f3n de precios promedio menor al 1,5% hasta septiembre. Con la licitaci\u00f3n del BOPREAL Serie 4, el BCRA contrajo la cantidad de dinero en USD 810 millones en pesos equivalentes, reduciendo cada vez m\u00e1s la cantidad de pesos en la econom\u00eda, que se suman a los pesos absorbidos por el super\u00e1vit fiscal del Tesoro. Mientras tanto, la demanda de dinero contin\u00faa aumentando, por lo que las condiciones para mantener un tipo de cambio estable y una inflaci\u00f3n a la baja siguen firmes. <strong>A partir de julio, finaliza la estacionalidad positiva del agro y la reducci\u00f3n en los derechos de exportaci\u00f3n del sector, por lo que ser\u00e1 fundamental medir la volatilidad del tipo de cambio una vez que se retire dicha oferta de d\u00f3lares del mercado.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> el d\u00f3lar oficial (A3500) abre la rueda en zona de $1.145.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>BOPREAL 4: <\/strong>el Banco Central emiti\u00f3 USD 810 millones (casi un 27% del monto m\u00e1ximo a emitir) de BOPREAL Serie 4 en la licitaci\u00f3n del d\u00eda de ayer. Quienes suscribieron, convalidaron un tipo de cambio impl\u00edcito superior a $1.400 (asumiendo un rendimiento mayor al 9%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Nuevo super\u00e1vit fiscal: <\/strong>el SPN registr\u00f3 un nuevo super\u00e1vit fiscal primario de $1,69 billones y un excedente financiero de $0,62 billones. El acumulado del a\u00f1o lleg\u00f3 a $6,9 billones y super\u00f3 la meta del FMI de $6,1 billones. El super\u00e1vit se logr\u00f3 a pesar de que los ingresos reales cayeron casi 14% en t\u00e9rminos reales y los gastos solo 2%. Cabe mencionar que la base de comparaci\u00f3n de los ingresos del a\u00f1o 2024 estuvieron influidos por recaudaci\u00f3n extraordinaria de Ganancias por los balances anuales de 2023.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Balanza comercial: <\/strong>hoy a las 16hs, el INDEC dar\u00e1 a conocer el resultado de la balanza comercial del mes de mayo. En los \u00faltimos meses, el super\u00e1vit fue disminuyendo al punto tal que el acumulado del primer cuatrimestre solo sum\u00f3 USD 1.265 millones contra USD 6.208 millones del mismo per\u00edodo del a\u00f1o pasado.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Contexto internacional: <\/strong>la Fed mantuvo sin cambios la tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria en 4,25-4,5% tal como descontaba el mercado. En el comunicado, indican que la econom\u00eda se mantiene firme, a pesar de un golpe esperado en las exportaciones netas. La autoridad monetaria comunic\u00f3 que el desempleo se sostiene bajo y las condiciones del mercado laboral est\u00e1n s\u00f3lidas. Sin embargo, creen que la inflaci\u00f3n todav\u00eda est\u00e1 alta. En sus proyecciones macroecon\u00f3micas, la Fed volvi\u00f3 a reducir la estimaci\u00f3n de crecimiento para 2025 y 2026 a 1,4% y 1,6%, y aument\u00f3 la inflaci\u00f3n (PCE) n\u00facleo esperada a 3,1% para este a\u00f1o desde 2,8% en la \u00faltima proyecci\u00f3n de marzo. Trump volvi\u00f3 a criticar a Powell por no reducir las tasas de inter\u00e9s. En cuanto a la guerra en Medio Oriente, el presidente de EE.UU. dijo que nadie puede saber lo que har\u00e1, en cuanto a su intervenci\u00f3n directa en el conflicto. En Brasil, el banco central volvi\u00f3 a subir la tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria a 15%. El par USDBRL cay\u00f3 a 5,49 desde 6,2 a comienzos de a\u00f1o.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp;de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eliminar pesos y mantener la desinflaci\u00f3n La inflaci\u00f3n minorista del mes de mayo sorprendi\u00f3 las estimaciones de los analistas, y la deflaci\u00f3n mayorista termin\u00f3 por convencer a los inversores de que la variaci\u00f3n de precios se mantendr\u00e1 por debajo del 1,5% hasta las elecciones. Por lo menos, as\u00ed lo refleja la inflaci\u00f3n breakeven del mercado de bonos, que ayer cerr\u00f3 con una variaci\u00f3n de precios promedio menor al 1,5% hasta septiembre. Con la licitaci\u00f3n del BOPREAL Serie 4, el BCRA contrajo la cantidad de dinero en USD 810 millones en pesos equivalentes, reduciendo cada vez m\u00e1s la cantidad de pesos [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Por lo menos, as\u00ed lo refleja la inflaci\u00f3n breakeven del mercado&hellip;","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/category\/pre-market-daily-close-en\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":0,"relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 10 months ago","modified":"Updated 10 months ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on June 19, 2025","modified":"Updated on June 19, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on June 19, 2025 10:45 am","modified":"Updated on June 19, 2025 5:23 pm"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43240"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43240\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43241,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43240\/revisions\/43241"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}