{"id":42021,"date":"2025-03-28T11:28:28","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T14:28:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-28-03-25\/"},"modified":"2025-03-28T11:30:03","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T14:30:03","slug":"cmf-pre-market-28-03-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-28-03-25\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 28-03-25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><em>Rollover exitoso y explicaci\u00f3n del acuerdo en los medios<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>La licitaci\u00f3n del d\u00eda de ayer finaliz\u00f3 con un rollover del 100% al adjudicar $6,28 billones habiendo recibido ofertas por $8,27 billones. Si bien los vencimientos totales eran de $9,2 billones, una parte de ese monto no entraba en la licitaci\u00f3n por ser vencimientos con el BCRA. En la misma l\u00ednea que las \u00faltimas subastas, la mayor parte de lo adjudicado fue en LECAP a corto plazo con $4,8 billones emitidos entre abril y mayo a una tasa del 2,8% TEM. Como era de esperar, la demanda por DL lleg\u00f3 y el Tesoro tuvo que emitir USD 1.000 millones, con el 80% venciendo en junio 2025 a devaluaci\u00f3n -2% TEA. La demanda por cobertura CER estuvo acotada y solo se emitieron ARS 204.000 millones. El equipo econ\u00f3mico realiz\u00f3 una ronda de entrevistas el d\u00eda de ayer en pos de explicar los avances en las negociaciones con el FMI; la intervenci\u00f3n de Caputo por la ma\u00f1ana no hab\u00eda esclarecido del todo la situaci\u00f3n en torno al acuerdo, aunque creemos que por la tarde\/noche se pudo aclarar un poco m\u00e1s el panorama. <strong>Todav\u00eda quedan preguntas por responder, pero en las pr\u00f3ximas semanas se terminar\u00e1 de definir el monto del acuerdo y el primer desembolso, que es lo que m\u00e1s preocupa al mercado.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> el BCRA contin\u00faa el <em>crawling peg <\/em>a 1% mensual y el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $1.071,5.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Licitaci\u00f3n del MECON: <\/strong>el Tesoro logr\u00f3 un rollover del 100% en la subasta de ayer, rechazando posturas por casi $2 billones. Adjudic\u00f3 $2,66 billones de la LECAP a abril, $2,11 billones de la de mayo y $0,19 billones de la de julio, adem\u00e1s de $0,2 billones entre los bonos CER a octubre 2025 y marzo 2027. Tambi\u00e9n emiti\u00f3 USD 1.000 MM entre los dos bonos <em>dollar-linked <\/em>a tasas por debajo de los cierres del mercado secundario.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Contin\u00faa la recuperaci\u00f3n: <\/strong>el Estimador de Actividad Econ\u00f3mica (EMAE) del INDEC creci\u00f3 en enero 6,5% en t\u00e9rminos interanuales, y 0,6% mensual en la serie desestacionalizada. De esta manera, el arrastre estad\u00edstico para 2025 aument\u00f3 a 4,2%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Balanza de pagos: <\/strong>el INDEC inform\u00f3 ayer que la inversi\u00f3n de portafolio de no residentes en t\u00edtulos de deuda soberana en pesos fue en diciembre de USD 787 MM al tipo de cambio oficial, continuando as\u00ed en niveles hist\u00f3ricamente bajos.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Balance cambiario: <\/strong>hoy por la tarde, el Banco Central publicar\u00e1 el balance cambiario de febrero. A modo de referencia, en enero las exportaciones liquidadas en el MULC superaron a las devengadas por primera vez desde que existe el <em>blend<\/em>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Elecciones legislativas: <\/strong>el Gobierno confirm\u00f3 que Adorni es el candidato del oficialismo para las elecciones legislativas. Las candidaturas se podr\u00e1n presentar hasta el d\u00eda de ma\u00f1ana y todav\u00eda no se confirm\u00f3 el o la candidata del PRO.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Saldo en el MULC: <\/strong>el Banco Central ampli\u00f3 nuevamente sus ventas en el MULC y finaliz\u00f3 el d\u00eda de ayer con un saldo negativo de USD 84 MM.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Contexto internacional: <\/strong>el registro de inflaci\u00f3n favorito por la Fed, PCE N\u00facleo, sorprendi\u00f3 al alza al anotar una variaci\u00f3n de 2,8% a\/a contra 2,7% esperado. La medida general del PCE aument\u00f3 0,3% m\/m (2,5% a\/a) en febrero, en l\u00ednea con lo esperado. Adem\u00e1s, el PCE n\u00facleo de enero fue revisado desde 2,6 a\/a a 2,7% a\/a. En cuanto a las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n para los pr\u00f3ximos 12 meses, la encuesta de la U. de Michigan volvi\u00f3 a subir a 5% desde 4,9% el mes pasado. En el Reino Unido, las ventas minoristas aumentaron 1% en febrero, superando ampliamente el consenso que esperaba una ca\u00edda del 0,3%. El PBI del 4to trimestre tambi\u00e9n fue mejor a lo esperado, con un crecimiento de 1,5% a\/a contra 1,4%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp;de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rollover exitoso y explicaci\u00f3n del acuerdo en los medios La licitaci\u00f3n del d\u00eda de ayer finaliz\u00f3 con un rollover del 100% al adjudicar $6,28 billones habiendo recibido ofertas por $8,27 billones. Si bien los vencimientos totales eran de $9,2 billones, una parte de ese monto no entraba en la licitaci\u00f3n por ser vencimientos con el BCRA. En la misma l\u00ednea que las \u00faltimas subastas, la mayor parte de lo adjudicado fue en LECAP a corto plazo con $4,8 billones emitidos entre abril y mayo a una tasa del 2,8% TEM. Como era de esperar, la demanda por DL lleg\u00f3 y [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Si bien los vencimientos totales eran de $9,2 billones, una parte de ese monto no entraba en la licitaci\u00f3n por ser vencimientos con el&hellip;","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/category\/pre-market-daily-close-en\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":0,"relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 1 year ago","modified":"Updated 1 year ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on March 28, 2025","modified":"Updated on March 28, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on March 28, 2025 11:28 am","modified":"Updated on March 28, 2025 11:30 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42021"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42021\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42022,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42021\/revisions\/42022"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}