{"id":41940,"date":"2025-03-20T11:17:30","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T14:17:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-20-03-25\/"},"modified":"2025-03-20T11:19:48","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T14:19:48","slug":"cmf-pre-market-20-03-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-20-03-25\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 20-03-25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><em>Cae el super\u00e1vit comercial por aumento de importaciones<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>En febrero, la econom\u00eda argentina logr\u00f3 su decimoquinto mes consecutivo de super\u00e1vit comercial. Sin embargo, el resultado volvi\u00f3 a estar muy por debajo de los super\u00e1vits mensuales alcanzados en 2024, acumulando solo USD 389 millones en el primer bimestre, frente a USD 2193 millones del mismo per\u00edodo del a\u00f1o pasado. Si bien las exportaciones alcanzaron un aumento del 10 % anual, las importaciones crecieron tres veces m\u00e1s, deteriorando el saldo comercial. La apreciaci\u00f3n cambiaria y la reducci\u00f3n del impuesto PAIS son los principales impulsores de este cambio de tendencia. El salto de importaciones, evidenciado en enero, se sostuvo en febrero, lo que sugiere que dicho incremento no se explic\u00f3 solo por la ca\u00edda del impuesto PAIS, sino tambi\u00e9n por la fortaleza del peso.<strong> A priori, estos n\u00fameros profundizan el d\u00e9ficit de la cuenta corriente del balance de pagos.<\/strong> El 28 de este mes conoceremos los detalles en torno al pago de importaciones, cuando el BCRA publique el balance cambiario.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> el BCRA contin\u00faa el <em>crawling peg <\/em>a 1% mensual y el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $1.069.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Acuerdo con el FMI: <\/strong>ayer, el oficialismo logr\u00f3 el visto bueno por parte de Diputados para avanzar con las negociaciones con el FMI. El decreto fue aprobado por 129 votos, mientras que 108 diputados votaron en contra y solo seis se abstuvieron.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Futuros de d\u00f3lar: <\/strong>ayer, finalmente, la curva de futuros de d\u00f3lar comprimi\u00f3 fuerte, luego de la fren\u00e9tica compra de cobertura del martes. Los futuros en Rofex cayeron hasta 3% directo ayer. El CCL tambi\u00e9n corrigi\u00f3 desde m\u00e1ximos intradiarios de $1.315.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Saldo en el MULC: <\/strong>el Banco Central vendi\u00f3 ayer USD 186 MM en el MULC, y acumula ventas por USD 931 MM en las \u00faltimas 4 ruedas. Es tan abultada la intervenci\u00f3n negativa del BCRA, que hay que remontarse a octubre 2019 para ver n\u00fameros similares.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Contexto internacional: <\/strong>la Reserva Federal decidi\u00f3 dejar sin cambios la tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria en el rango de 4,25-4,50%. Sin embargo, redujo sus proyecciones de crecimiento para los pr\u00f3ximos tres a\u00f1os, a la vez que aumento las estimaciones de inflaci\u00f3n para este a\u00f1o y el 2026. Tambi\u00e9n, increment\u00f3 a 4,4% la tasa de desempleo para 2025, desde 4,3% en la \u00faltima reuni\u00f3n de diciembre. En la dualidad de su mandato, la autoridad monetaria parece haberse inclinado hacia el pleno empleo, al anunciar la reducci\u00f3n de la velocidad del QT, pasando de dejar caer USD 25 bn a USD 5 bn mensuales en bonos del Tesoro<strong>.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp;de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cae el super\u00e1vit comercial por aumento de importaciones En febrero, la econom\u00eda argentina logr\u00f3 su decimoquinto mes consecutivo de super\u00e1vit comercial. Sin embargo, el resultado volvi\u00f3 a estar muy por debajo de los super\u00e1vits mensuales alcanzados en 2024, acumulando solo USD 389 millones en el primer bimestre, frente a USD 2193 millones del mismo per\u00edodo del a\u00f1o pasado. Si bien las exportaciones alcanzaron un aumento del 10 % anual, las importaciones crecieron tres veces m\u00e1s, deteriorando el saldo comercial. La apreciaci\u00f3n cambiaria y la reducci\u00f3n del impuesto PAIS son los principales impulsores de este cambio de tendencia. El salto de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Sin embargo, el resultado volvi\u00f3 a estar muy por debajo de los super\u00e1vits mensuales alcanzados en 2024, acumulando solo USD 389 millones en el primer bimestre, frente a USD 2193 millones del mismo per\u00edodo&hellip;","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/category\/pre-market-daily-close-en\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":0,"relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 1 year ago","modified":"Updated 1 year ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on March 20, 2025","modified":"Updated on March 20, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on March 20, 2025 11:17 am","modified":"Updated on March 20, 2025 11:19 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41940"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41940\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41941,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41940\/revisions\/41941"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}