{"id":40756,"date":"2024-12-18T10:46:41","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T13:46:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-18-12-24\/"},"modified":"2024-12-18T10:47:07","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T13:47:07","slug":"cmf-pre-market-18-12-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-18-12-24\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 18-12-24"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>El ancla fiscal se mantiene inalterable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>El Gobierno ha hecho de la responsabilidad fiscal su estrategia m\u00e1s fuerte para estabilizar los precios. A pocos d\u00edas de la visita de Thomas Sargent, Hacienda anunci\u00f3 que, en noviembre, volvi\u00f3 a registrar un super\u00e1vit financiero de casi $360.000 millones. Los ingresos superaron a los egresos en $1,38 billones, llevando la diferencia acumulada del a\u00f1o a 2,1% del PBI. Por su parte, el super\u00e1vit financiero acumulado a noviembre fue de 0,6% del PBI. Seg\u00fan el Gobierno, diciembre ser\u00e1 el primer y \u00fanico mes del a\u00f1o con d\u00e9ficit antes de intereses, pero igualmente finalizar\u00e1 el a\u00f1o con un super\u00e1vit primario de casi 2 puntos del producto y un financiero de 0,3%. Como novedad, en este \u00faltimo mes, el Gobierno impuls\u00f3 el crecimiento real de las jubilaciones por primera vez desde julio 2022, mientras que el gasto en AUH continu\u00f3 m\u00e1s que duplic\u00e1ndose en t\u00e9rminos reales. <strong>Creemos que el Gobierno seguir\u00e1 mejorando la calidad del ajuste, sin perder responsabilidad fiscal, a pesar de las elecciones de medio t\u00e9rmino.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> el BCRA contin\u00faa su <em>crawling peg<\/em> del 2% mensual y el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $1.022,5.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Acuerdo con el FMI: <\/strong>Caputo afirm\u00f3 en una entrevista que estima que para el primer cuatrimestre del a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo se llegar\u00e1 a un nuevo acuerdo con el Fondo. Tambi\u00e9n agreg\u00f3 que en enero o febrero probablemente se recorte el deslizamiento cambiario a 1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Equilibrio fiscal: <\/strong>en noviembre se logr\u00f3 un nuevo super\u00e1vit primario, por $1,38 billones, y un super\u00e1vit financiero de #357.000 MM. La ca\u00edda del gasto fue de 24,5% real interanual, mientras que los ingresos cayeron 7% real a\/a.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inflaci\u00f3n:<\/strong> seg\u00fan datos del INDEC, la inflaci\u00f3n mayorista fue del 1,4% mensual en noviembre, siendo la suba de los precios de los productos nacionales del 1,6% promedio, mientras que los productos importados anotaron una ca\u00edda del 1,2%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Balanza comercial:<\/strong> hoy a las 16hs, el INDEC publicar\u00e1 los datos de intercambio comercial de noviembre. A modo de referencia, la balanza comercial registr\u00f3 resultados positivos en los \u00faltimos 11 meses, acumulando USD 16.973 MM desde diciembre 2023.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Saldo en el MULC: <\/strong>el Banco Central compr\u00f3 ayer USD 151 MM en el MULC, y as\u00ed acumula un saldo de compras netas por USD 1.300 MM en lo que va de diciembre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Contexto internacional: <\/strong>hoy a las 16 hs., la Fed dar\u00e1 a conocer su decisi\u00f3n de tasas. El mercado espera con gran mayor\u00eda que el FOMC recorte en 25 pbs. hacia 4,25-4,50%. En caso de efectivizarse, se acumular\u00edan tres bajas consecutivas en un escenario donde la actividad no desacelera, los precios se mantienen insensibles a la baja y un mercado laboral que no termina de enfriarse. En Brasil, el real sigue depreci\u00e1ndose, a pesar de la intervenci\u00f3n por USD 2B del Banco Central do Brasil (USD 5,76 B desde el 13\/12). Chile, por su parte, recort\u00f3 la tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria en 25 pbs. hacia 5%, tal como esperaba el mercado.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp;de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El ancla fiscal se mantiene inalterable El Gobierno ha hecho de la responsabilidad fiscal su estrategia m\u00e1s fuerte para estabilizar los precios. A pocos d\u00edas de la visita de Thomas Sargent, Hacienda anunci\u00f3 que, en noviembre, volvi\u00f3 a registrar un super\u00e1vit financiero de casi $360.000 millones. Los ingresos superaron a los egresos en $1,38 billones, llevando la diferencia acumulada del a\u00f1o a 2,1% del PBI. Por su parte, el super\u00e1vit financiero acumulado a noviembre fue de 0,6% del PBI. Seg\u00fan el Gobierno, diciembre ser\u00e1 el primer y \u00fanico mes del a\u00f1o con d\u00e9ficit antes de intereses, pero igualmente finalizar\u00e1 el [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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A pocos d\u00edas de la visita de Thomas Sargent, Hacienda anunci\u00f3 que, en noviembre, volvi\u00f3 a registrar un super\u00e1vit financiero de casi $360.000 millones. Los ingresos superaron a los egresos en $1,38 billones,&hellip;","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/category\/pre-market-daily-close-en\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":0,"relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 1 year ago","modified":"Updated 1 year ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on December 18, 2024","modified":"Updated on December 18, 2024"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on December 18, 2024 10:46 am","modified":"Updated on December 18, 2024 10:47 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40756"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40756\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40757,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40756\/revisions\/40757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}