{"id":39828,"date":"2024-10-08T11:09:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T14:09:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-08-10-24\/"},"modified":"2024-10-08T11:10:19","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T14:10:19","slug":"cmf-pre-market-08-10-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-08-10-24\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 08-10-24"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>\u00bfCambio en las prioridades?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>La inflaci\u00f3n se ha estancado en los \u00faltimos cuatro meses en la zona del 4%, y las dudas sobre un posible quiebre a la baja se han intensificado. La reducci\u00f3n del impuesto PAIS y la ayuda de precios estacionales habr\u00edan permitido que septiembre llegara por debajo de ese piso. Sin embargo, como indica Cavallo en su \u00faltimo post, el Gobierno no esperaba un freno semejante en el proceso desinflacionario, y estimaba una convergencia al 2% de forma m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida. Para que se cumplan las proyecciones del Presupuesto 2025, el IPC deber\u00eda variar 1,2% mensual hasta diciembre. El trade-off entre inflaci\u00f3n y actividad pone de manifiesto la dificultad de reducir la variaci\u00f3n de precios hacia el objetivo. Las encuestas indican que la principal preocupaci\u00f3n de la sociedad ha pasado a ser la pobreza y el Gobierno celebra la recuperaci\u00f3n del cr\u00e9dito privado y la reactivaci\u00f3n de la demanda. <strong>Parece haber un cambio en el sesgo de la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica, que ahora busca cierto equilibrio entre el nivel de precios y la actividad.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> el BCRA contin\u00faa su <em>crawling peg<\/em> del 2% mensual y el FX mayorista abre la jornada en~ $975,5.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Licitaci\u00f3n del MECON: <\/strong>en la subasta de ma\u00f1ana, el MECON ofrecer\u00e1 seis t\u00edtulos a tasa fija con vencimientos entre enero y diciembre 2025, tres Boncer cup\u00f3n cero con vencimientos entre diciembre 2025 y marzo 2027, y un dollar-linked a diciembre 2025. Enfrentar\u00e1 vencimientos por $5,1 billones entre la S14O4 y el T4X4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inflaci\u00f3n de CABA: <\/strong>la Ciudad de Buenos Aires midi\u00f3 una inflaci\u00f3n de 4% en septiembre, anotando su menor registro desde enero 2022. El aumento de Regulados fue de 4,8%, mientras que la N\u00facleo midi\u00f3 3,9% y, Estacionales, 2,9%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Actividad: <\/strong>el \u00edndice Construya cay\u00f3 5,4% mensual en septiembre, acentuando la contracci\u00f3n de agosto. Por su parte, las ventas minoristas desaceler\u00f3 su ca\u00edda respecto al mes anterior, anotando una disminuci\u00f3n de 0,5% mensual en la serie desestacionalizada. Hoy a las 16hs, el INDEC publicar\u00e1 los datos de construcci\u00f3n e industria, que en julio anotaron una recuperaci\u00f3n de 8% y 6,9% mensual.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ley de Financiamiento Universitario:<\/strong> ma\u00f1ana a las 11am, se llevar\u00e1 a cabo la sesi\u00f3n en Diputados para debatir el veto presidencial a la Ley de financiamiento universitario. El Pro mostr\u00f3 ayer su apoyo a la decisi\u00f3n de Milei y, seg\u00fan medios de comunicaci\u00f3n, el oficialismo ya cuenta con 80 de los 85 votos que necesita para acompa\u00f1ar el veto.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Saldo en el MULC: <\/strong>el Banco Central compr\u00f3 ayer USD 1 MM netos en el MULC, acumulando un saldo positivo de USD 584 MM en las \u00faltimas siete ruedas.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Contexto internacional: <\/strong>los miembros del FOMC siguen teniendo visiones contrapuestas con respecto al recorte de tasas, aunque la mayor\u00eda de los que se expresaron en los \u00faltimos d\u00edas parecen favorecer una pausa en el proceso de bajas. En China, el \u00edndice CSI 300 sigui\u00f3 operando al alza, aunque el rally se cort\u00f3 en Hong Kong.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp;de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00bfCambio en las prioridades? La inflaci\u00f3n se ha estancado en los \u00faltimos cuatro meses en la zona del 4%, y las dudas sobre un posible quiebre a la baja se han intensificado. La reducci\u00f3n del impuesto PAIS y la ayuda de precios estacionales habr\u00edan permitido que septiembre llegara por debajo de ese piso. Sin embargo, como indica Cavallo en su \u00faltimo post, el Gobierno no esperaba un freno semejante en el proceso desinflacionario, y estimaba una convergencia al 2% de forma m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida. Para que se cumplan las proyecciones del Presupuesto 2025, el IPC deber\u00eda variar 1,2% mensual hasta diciembre. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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La inflaci\u00f3n se ha estancado en los \u00faltimos cuatro meses en la zona del 4%, y las dudas sobre un posible quiebre a la baja se han intensificado. La reducci\u00f3n del impuesto PAIS y la ayuda de precios estacionales habr\u00edan permitido que septiembre llegara por debajo de ese piso. Sin embargo,&hellip;","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/category\/pre-market-daily-close-en\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/category\/sin-categorizar\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Uncategorized<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Uncategorized<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":0,"relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 2 years ago","modified":"Updated 2 years ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on October 8, 2024","modified":"Updated on October 8, 2024"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on October 8, 2024 11:09 am","modified":"Updated on October 8, 2024 11:10 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39828","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39828"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39828\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39829,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39828\/revisions\/39829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}