{"id":39758,"date":"2024-10-02T11:55:06","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T14:55:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-02-10-24\/"},"modified":"2024-10-02T11:55:35","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T14:55:35","slug":"cmf-pre-market-02-10-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-02-10-24\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 02-10-24"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Ingresos extraordinarios suavizan la ca\u00edda<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>La AFIP dio a conocer los n\u00fameros de recaudaci\u00f3n de septiembre, que volvieron a caer en t\u00e9rminos reales contra el a\u00f1o pasado. A pesar de los ingresos extraordinarios derivados del adelanto de bienes personales y la moratoria, la recaudaci\u00f3n cay\u00f3 3,5% en t\u00e9rminos reales contra septiembre 2023. Si se excluyen dichos beneficios excepcionales, la ca\u00edda habr\u00eda sido de dos d\u00edgitos. Como era de esperar, por la reducci\u00f3n de la al\u00edcuota del impuesto PAIS, el ingreso por esa v\u00eda cay\u00f3 ~41% en t\u00e9rminos reales. <strong>Si bien es importante sostener un nivel de recaudaci\u00f3n saludable, no creemos que su deterioro ponga en riesgo el equilibrio fiscal, dado que el Gobierno ajustar\u00e1 el gasto lo que sea necesario para lograrlo.<\/strong> El rebote de la econom\u00eda debiera mejorar los ingresos derivados de impuestos vinculados a la actividad, poni\u00e9ndole un freno a la ca\u00edda de la recaudaci\u00f3n.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> el BCRA contin\u00faa su <em>crawling peg<\/em> del 2% mensual y el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $972.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Recaudaci\u00f3n fiscal: <\/strong>la recaudaci\u00f3n total de septiembre cay\u00f3 3,4% interanual en t\u00e9rminos reales, aunque la ca\u00edda habr\u00eda sido mayor sin el R\u00e9gimen Especial de Bienes Personales la moratoria. De acuerdo con datos de AFIP, se recaudaron $881.000 MM por los adelantos de BBPP, $278.000 MM por la moratoria y $10.000 MM por el blanqueo.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Importaciones:<\/strong> el Gobierno reducir\u00e1 aranceles a la importaci\u00f3n de m\u00faltiples bienes de consumo que ten\u00edan aranceles elevados, como motos, neum\u00e1ticos y peque\u00f1os electrodom\u00e9sticos, adem\u00e1s de ciertos tipos de maquinarias e insumos.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sector agro:<\/strong> seg\u00fan datos de CIARA y CEC, el sector agro liquid\u00f3 USD 2.480 MM en septiembre, creciendo 21,3% en t\u00e9rminos interanuales.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Aerol\u00edneas Argentinas:<\/strong> el Gobierno declar\u00f3 oficialmente que Aerol\u00edneas Argentinas es una empresa \u201csujeta a privatizaci\u00f3n\u201d.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Saldo en el MULC: <\/strong>el Banco Central compr\u00f3 ayer USD 122 MM netos en el MULC, acumulando un saldo positivo de USD 314 MM en las \u00faltimas tres ruedas.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Contexto internacional: <\/strong>el fuerte ataque de Ir\u00e1n a Israel dispar\u00f3 el petr\u00f3leo por encima de USD 70 el barril y los activos seguros, como el oro, tomaron impulso al alza. El debate entre candidatos a vicepresidentes en EE.UU. fue m\u00e1s respetuoso que aquel entre Harris y Trump y el mercado achic\u00f3 la diferencia entre ambos partidos a 2,4 puntos porcentuales. Los datos de actividad del \u00edndice ISM de manufacturas se ubic\u00f3 en 47,2 puntos en septiembre, levemente por debajo de lo esperado y los 50 que marcan contracci\u00f3n de la actividad. El nowcast de la Fed revis\u00f3 el crecimiento estimado para el 3T a 2,5% t\/t anualizado desde el 3,1% t\/t anterior. En Asia, el est\u00edmulo del PBoC continu\u00f3 impulsando los mercados al alza.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp;de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ingresos extraordinarios suavizan la ca\u00edda La AFIP dio a conocer los n\u00fameros de recaudaci\u00f3n de septiembre, que volvieron a caer en t\u00e9rminos reales contra el a\u00f1o pasado. A pesar de los ingresos extraordinarios derivados del adelanto de bienes personales y la moratoria, la recaudaci\u00f3n cay\u00f3 3,5% en t\u00e9rminos reales contra septiembre 2023. Si se excluyen dichos beneficios excepcionales, la ca\u00edda habr\u00eda sido de dos d\u00edgitos. Como era de esperar, por la reducci\u00f3n de la al\u00edcuota del impuesto PAIS, el ingreso por esa v\u00eda cay\u00f3 ~41% en t\u00e9rminos reales. Si bien es importante sostener un nivel de recaudaci\u00f3n saludable, no creemos [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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A pesar de los ingresos extraordinarios derivados del adelanto de bienes personales y la moratoria, la recaudaci\u00f3n cay\u00f3 3,5% en t\u00e9rminos reales contra septiembre 2023. Si se excluyen&hellip;","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/category\/pre-market-daily-close-en\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Pre Market &amp; Daily Close<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":0,"relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 2 years ago","modified":"Updated 2 years ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on October 2, 2024","modified":"Updated on October 2, 2024"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on October 2, 2024 11:55 am","modified":"Updated on October 2, 2024 11:55 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39758"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39758\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39759,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39758\/revisions\/39759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}