{"id":36418,"date":"2024-04-03T11:20:05","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T14:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-03-04-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-04-30T00:18:27","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T03:18:27","slug":"cmf-pre-market-03-04-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-03-04-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 03-04-2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong>Gradualismo en lo cambiario, shock en ajuste de precios<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em>En lo que va de 2024, se han filtrado distintas versiones sobre posibles relajamientos de restricciones cambiarias. Sin embargo, el Gobierno ha dejado en claro en m\u00e1s de una ocasi\u00f3n que todav\u00eda no es momento de liberar el cepo. Hace poco, el presidente Javier Milei indic\u00f3 que, en caso de tener USD 15.000 MM, estar\u00eda en condiciones de poder levantar la restricci\u00f3n de capitales, pero no hay indicios que el Gobierno est\u00e9 negociando un pr\u00e9stamo por ese monto. A su vez, el BCRA contin\u00faa su proceso de saneamiento, pero para el presidente de la autoridad monetaria todav\u00eda \u201cqueda sinceramiento por hacer\u201d. Las reservas netas internacionales netas se encuentran en zona negativa y la potencial demanda del mercado podr\u00eda poner en riesgo la consecuci\u00f3n de la meta con el FMI. Si bien el excedente monetario se ha licuado en gran cantidad, queda trabajo por hacer cuando se lo mide en moneda extranjera. De all\u00ed la necesidad de continuar con tasas reales negativas. Creemos que la salida del cepo implicar\u00e1 mantener tasas reales positivas, algo que no creemos que suceda en este primer semestre. La heterodoxia y el pragmatismo copan el centro de la escena. El Gobierno opera con cierta cautela y se mueve en forma gradual en cuanto al cepo, pero no as\u00ed con las tarifas. Hoy se confirm\u00f3 el aumento de las tarifas de gas, que se espera superen el 300%. <strong>En l\u00ednea con lo comentado el mi\u00e9rcoles de la semana pasada, vemos valor en empresas transportistas y distribuidoras.<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el BCRA contin\u00faa su <em>crawling peg<\/em> del 2% mensual y el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $861-862.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Tarifas de gas: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el ENARGAS public\u00f3 los nuevos cuadros tarifarios de transici\u00f3n de las distribuidoras de gas de todo el pa\u00eds. Las nuevas tarifas comienzan a regir a partir del d\u00eda de hoy y se ver\u00e1n reflejadas en las boletas de mayo. Los aumentos en el cargo fijo de Metrogas y Naturgy (AMBA) ser\u00e1n de 695% y 112%, respectivamente.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Licuaci\u00f3n: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el INDEC report\u00f3 los salarios de enero, que en su conjunto subieron 16,4% m\/m versus una inflaci\u00f3n del 20,6%. De esta manera, la ca\u00edda real de los salarios privados registrados fue de 0,5% m\/m, la del sector p\u00fablico registrado fue de 7,05% m\/m, mientras que los no registrados sufrieron una licuaci\u00f3n de 7,79% m\/m.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Saldo en el MULC: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el BCRA compr\u00f3 USD 29 MM el pasado mi\u00e9rcoles, sin embargo, las reservas brutas cayeron otros USD 499 MM. La ca\u00edda de los \u00faltimos dos d\u00edas h\u00e1biles alcanz\u00f3 la cifra de USD 1.115 MM, que se explica principalmente por el pago de obligaciones con el extranjero.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Contexto internacional: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el mercado opera en rojo en el pre-market, mientras las tasas contin\u00faan al alza, los metales anotan nuevos m\u00e1ximos y el crudo supera la barrera de USD 85.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp; de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 03-04-2024 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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