{"id":36234,"date":"2024-03-18T10:49:35","date_gmt":"2024-03-18T13:49:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-18-03-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-04-30T00:18:54","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T03:18:54","slug":"cmf-pre-market-18-03-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-18-03-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 18-03-2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>\u00bfTemor por la estacionalidad de marzo?<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><em><em><em><em><em>La inflaci\u00f3n viene mostrando un sendero de desinflaci\u00f3n que el Gobierno quiere mantener a toda costa. Luego del pico de diciembre, la variaci\u00f3n de precios de enero y febrero confirmaron que el ancla fiscal y la licuaci\u00f3n de pesos est\u00e1 surgiendo efecto. Sin embargo, se tem\u00eda que la estacionalidad del mes de marzo pod\u00eda jugarle el contra al Gobierno, por lo que se decidi\u00f3 postergar aumentos de tarifas de transporte y gas. De esta manera, se pondr\u00eda pausa al ajuste de precios relativos que se vio en el primer bimestre con Regulados subiendo m\u00e1s de 15 puntos en relaci\u00f3n al Nivel general. Esta decisi\u00f3n complica aun m\u00e1s la situaci\u00f3n que se est\u00e1 viviendo en el sector de energ\u00eda, principalmente de gas. Las empresas generadoras y transportistas se encuentran a la espera de la oficializaci\u00f3n mediante Bolet\u00edn Oficial de los aumentos en las tarifas, pero todav\u00eda no tienen novedades al respecto. Algunas compa\u00f1\u00edas del sector ya han manifestado sus problemas para cubrir costos, por lo que se espera que el Gobierno no tarde mucho m\u00e1s en oficializarlo. La postergaci\u00f3n evidencia cierto temor por la estacionalidad del mes de marzo; pero debe entenderse que los procesos desinflacionarios est\u00e1n lejos de ser regulares y homog\u00e9neos, sino m\u00e1s bien vol\u00e1tiles; lo que importa es que la tendencia no se rompa por completo. Mientras los ajustes fiscales y de precios relativos se sostengan, el plan mantendr\u00e1 su consistencia y la inflaci\u00f3n no deber\u00eda desviarse mucho de lo esperado. <strong>Aun as\u00ed, creemos que el mes de marzo puede sorprender levemente al alza, por lo que cubrirse con bonos CER de corto plazo luce como la mejor opci\u00f3n.<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el BCRA contin\u00faa su <em>crawling peg<\/em> del 2% mensual y el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $852<strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/li><li><strong><strong><strong>Super\u00e1vit fiscal: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>en febrero se logr\u00f3 nuevamente el super\u00e1vit primario (de $1,23 billones) y el financiero (de $338.000 MM). Si bien los ingresos de Naci\u00f3n cayeron 6,3% interanual en t\u00e9rminos reales, los gastos se desplomaron un 36,4%.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>DNU: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el presidente anunci\u00f3 ayer que en caso de que el DNU sea rechazado por Diputados, podr\u00eda separarlo en siete decretos. Por otro lado, dijo que \u201csi no se aprueba la ley Bases antes del Pacto de Mayo, no tiene sentido el Pacto de Mayo\u201d y que el Gobierno est\u00e1 dispuesto al di\u00e1logo mientras el d\u00e9ficit cero \u201cno se toque\u201d.\u00a0<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Canje de deuda 2024: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el MECON anunci\u00f3 que algunos inversores del canje de la semana pasada no entregaron los bonos elegibles habiendo aceptado antes la operaci\u00f3n. Por lo tanto, el Gobierno les debit\u00f3 pesos por un monto equivalente al valor t\u00e9cnico de los t\u00edtulos elegibles. El incumplimiento alcanz\u00f3 los $61.634 MM de valor t\u00e9cnico, lo que equivale a 0,1% de la aceptaci\u00f3n del canje original.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Saldo en el MULC:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el viernes el Banco Central compr\u00f3 USD 229 MM en el MULC, acumulando un saldo positivo de USD 7.747 MM en el 2024 y de USD 10.610 MM desde la devaluaci\u00f3n del 13 de diciembre.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Contexto internacional: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el mercado de <em>equity<\/em> en EE.UU. opera al alza en el pre-market a la espera de la reuni\u00f3n del FOMC a llevarse a cabo este mi\u00e9rcoles.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp; de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en","category-sin-categorizar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 18-03-2024 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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