{"id":34453,"date":"2022-10-21T10:54:28","date_gmt":"2022-10-21T13:54:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-21-10-2022\/"},"modified":"2024-04-26T12:22:44","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T15:22:44","slug":"cmf-pre-market-21-10-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-21-10-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 21-10-2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><strong>Sinceramiento y super\u00e1vit<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em>Esta semana se dieron a conocer datos fundamentales para dar cuenta c\u00f3mo se viene comportando la econom\u00eda, y la sorpresa estuvo a la orden del d\u00eda. Si bien, una vez conocida la medida del d\u00f3lar \u201csoja\u201d, se esperaba que las estimaciones fiscales sean superadas, no as\u00ed en todas las variables macro. La inflaci\u00f3n, el resultado fiscal y la balanza comercial mostraron todas un dato mejor al esperado. Muy probablemente este relajamiento en las tensas condiciones macroecon\u00f3micas en las que se encuentra la econom\u00eda argentina, son una derivaci\u00f3n del sinceramiento de uno de los precios m\u00e1s importantes del pa\u00eds, el d\u00f3lar. El tipo de cambio diferenciado para el complejo sojero cambi\u00f3 la din\u00e1mica del mes de septiembre permitiendo aumentar la recaudaci\u00f3n tributaria m\u00e1s de 120% en t\u00e9rminos reales interanuales, mejorando (gran parte de la liquidaci\u00f3n parece haberse vendido anteriormente) el nivel de exportaciones y, logrando una relativa estabilidad en los tipos de cambios financieros que redujeron el pass-through. De esta manera, queda evidenciada la importancia de los incentivos en la econom\u00eda, y como en Argentina el sincerar precios podr\u00eda encausar las variables macro, siempre y cuando se realice en conjunto con un eficiente manejo del gasto p\u00fablico.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><strong>Mercado de cambio: <\/strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> el FX mayorista abre ARS 153.81 (+30 centavos diarios, equivalente a un ritmo de devaluaci\u00f3n del 71.33% TNA).<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Meta FMI: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>conocido el dato fiscal de septiembre, se confirma el cumplimiento de la meta fiscal del 3er trimestre. Con el super\u00e1vit de $ 5.300MM, el d\u00e9ficit acumulado en los 9 meses del a\u00f1o corriente alcanza la suma de $1.096.000 MM; la meta para la totalidad del 2022 es de $2.015.700 MM, un 2.5% del PBI, por lo que el d\u00e9ficit en el \u00faltimo trimestre no deber\u00eda superar los $920.000 MM. Por el cumplimiento de la meta fiscal, se habilitar\u00eda el desembolso de USD 5.700MM en diciembre.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>EMAE: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el d\u00eda de ayer se dio a conocer el dato de actividad del mes de agosto, que sorprendi\u00f3 positivamente las estimaciones de analistas. El EMAE avanz\u00f3 0.4% m\/m s.e. (+6.4% a\/a). Trece sectores de los relevados por el estudio mostraron avances en t\u00e9rminos interanuales. La Industria Manufacturera (+8.3% i.a.) y el Comercio Mayorista, Minorista y Reparaciones (+9.0% i.a.) fueron los principales responsables del incremento con relaci\u00f3n al a\u00f1o anterior; entre ambos sumaron 2.7% al aumento interanual del \u00edndice total.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Balanza comercial:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>El INDEC present\u00f3 el intercambio comercial argentino, mostrando un saldo comercial positivo en USD 414MM, cortando de esta manera la racha negativa de 3 d\u00e9ficits comerciales consecutivos. De esta manera, el super\u00e1vit acumulado del a\u00f1o asciende a USD 2.600MM. El saldo del mismo mes del a\u00f1o anterior fue de USD 1.685MM. Seg\u00fan lo observado, las exportaciones aumentaron 0.9% m\/m s.e., luego de dos ca\u00eddas consecutivas, aunque la variaci\u00f3n con el mismo per\u00edodo del a\u00f1o 2021 fue negativa en 2.2%.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Saldo en el MULC:<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> Seg\u00fan fuentes de mercado, ayer el BCRA finaliz\u00f3 la jornada con un saldo de positivo de USD 5 MM, teniendo en cuenta este dato, ya son 4 ruedas sin ventas. En lo que va del mes, el volumen en el MULC ha disminuido.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>Equity: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>los mercados globales abren la jornada nuevamente negativos, contin\u00faa la tendencia de apreciaci\u00f3n del dollar en relaci\u00f3n al Euro y la libra, a la vez\u00a0 que las tasas contin\u00faan su escalada. Los mercados comienzan a proyectar una tasa terminal de Fed Funds cercana al 5%.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp; de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 21-10-2022 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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