{"id":34373,"date":"2024-01-02T10:39:31","date_gmt":"2024-01-02T13:39:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-02-01-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-04-30T00:23:59","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T03:23:59","slug":"cmf-pre-market-02-01-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-02-01-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 02-01-2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Sensible pre-estabilizaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em>La inflaci\u00f3n del mes de diciembre habr\u00eda finalizado en torno al 30%, lo que llevar\u00eda la variaci\u00f3n anual del 2023 por encima del 220%. Dado el reacomodamiento de precios relativos, seg\u00fan consultoras privadas, el primer trimestre del a\u00f1o estar\u00eda cerca del 60%, mientras que se espera que haya una apreciaci\u00f3n del tipo de cambio real. El Gobierno se mantiene firme con su estrategia de llevar el crawling peg al 2% mensual, con el riesgo que implica para las reservas un nuevo atraso en el tipo de cambio de comercio exterior. La respuesta del equipo econ\u00f3mico a este temor se centra en el overshooting inicial a $800 por d\u00f3lar, siendo que un FX en $650 hubiera sido uno aceptable para exportadores e importadores. Si el fuerte ancla fiscal comienza a rendir sus frutos, el tipo de cambio libre podr\u00eda continuar su convergencia al comercial hasta su eventual unificaci\u00f3n, a su vez que la inflaci\u00f3n comenzar\u00eda a desacelerar. Para que esto suceda, luce como condici\u00f3n necesaria \u2013pero no suficiente\u2013 que el BCRA aumente con creces la acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas. El panorama luce complicado y el Gobierno busca evitar que la crisis evolucione a magnitudes incontrolables. Todav\u00eda no est\u00e1n dadas las condiciones para un programa de estabilizaci\u00f3n, aunque, de darse lo mencionado anteriormente, es m\u00e1s factible que el plan tenga \u00e9xito. <strong>De corto plazo, luce atractivo el equity en sectores vinculados a la exportaci\u00f3n y utilities.<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> <\/strong>el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $810,7.<\/li><li><strong><strong>Pol\u00edtica Monetaria:<\/strong><\/strong> el BCRA public\u00f3 sus objetivos y planes para el 2024 e inform\u00f3 que el tipo de cambio cumplir\u00e1 un rol de ancla complementaria en las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n, y ratific\u00f3 el <em>crawling peg<\/em> de 2% mensual como \u201crefuerzo del ancla fiscal\u201d.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong>Desregulaciones:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>entrado el DNU en vigencia, Federico Sturzenegger dijo en una entrevista que las medidas enviadas representan s\u00f3lo el 40% de los cambios que Milei quiere lograr e inform\u00f3 que esta semana se enviar\u00e1 un nuevo Proyecto de Ley para eliminar 160 regulaciones \u201cabsurdas\u201d.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong>Bancos: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>la Comunicaci\u00f3n \u201cA\u201d 7910, que establec\u00eda que la posici\u00f3n de contado diaria de moneda extranjera de las entidades financieras no pod\u00eda superar la menor que surgiera de comparar el nivel registrado entre el 12\/10\/2023 y el 6\/12\/2023, venci\u00f3 terminado diciembre, por lo que los bancos que ten\u00edan una posici\u00f3n negativa podr\u00e1n volver a cero.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong>BOPREAL:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>el Central volver\u00e1 a licitar el bono para importadores Serie 1 ma\u00f1ana y el jueves, nuevamente por un monto m\u00e1ximo de USD 750 MM. La diferencia con respecto a la semana pasada es que los importadores podr\u00e1n acceder al CCL a partir de abril por la diferencia entre el valor nominal y el precio de venta contra divisa del BOPREAL. Tambi\u00e9n se aclar\u00f3 que el monto de emisi\u00f3n m\u00e1ximo es consistente con el cupo de AFIP para cancelar impuestos, por lo que disminuyen las incertidumbres sobre el <em>sweetener<\/em>.<\/li><li><strong><strong>Deuda importadora: <\/strong><\/strong>publicado el Balance Cambiario del BCRA, se estima que la deuda con importadores aument\u00f3 USD 3.821 MM en noviembre y que la autoridad monetaria no habr\u00eda intervenido en el tipo de cambio financiero ese mismo mes.\u00a0<\/li><li><strong><strong>Saldo en el MULC:<\/strong> <\/strong>el viernes el BCRA compr\u00f3 USD 270 MM en cambios, acumulando un saldo positivo de USD 2.864 desde la devaluaci\u00f3n y de USD 2.085 MM en diciembre. De esta manera, el saldo neto del a\u00f1o 2023 fue de apenas 490 MM.<\/li><li><strong>Equity:<\/strong> el mercado internacional opera en negativo en el pre-market a la vez que las tasas de inter\u00e9s abren al alza.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp; de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 02-01-2024 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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