{"id":34369,"date":"2024-01-04T11:34:51","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T14:34:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-04-01-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-04-30T00:23:52","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T03:23:52","slug":"cmf-pre-market-04-01-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-04-01-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 04-01-2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>\u00bfAncla cambiaria, hasta cu\u00e1ndo?<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em><em>El salto discreto de mediados de diciembre del nuevo Gobierno achic\u00f3 la brecha a niveles impensados hace 2 meses atr\u00e1s. Tal fue la reducci\u00f3n del spread que cay\u00f3 a niveles cercanos al 10%, mientras el Gobierno presentaba un plan de licuaci\u00f3n para resolver el excedente monetario. La resoluci\u00f3n del problema de deuda de importadores parece haberse quedado corta en incentivos, aunque el instrumento podr\u00eda funcionar como mecanismo de equilibrio para el CCL. Si la brecha comienza a subir, a punto tal que conviene ingresar al BOPREAL, las licitaciones comenzar\u00e1n a tener los resultados esperados y, a su vez, contendr\u00e1 la presi\u00f3n de aquellos que buscan cancelar deuda por medio del d\u00f3lar libre. Las primeras dos semanas de licitaci\u00f3n no parecen haber tenido la demanda esperada por el Gobierno y tal vez se explique por el bajo nivel de brecha que todav\u00eda mantiene el atractivo de dolarizar v\u00eda CCL y pagar a acreedores por ese medio. El nivel del d\u00f3lar financiero tambi\u00e9n se puede ver influido por los cambios estacionales en la demanda de dinero a partir de febrero y liquidaciones por parte de exportadores \u2013en caso de mantenerse el esquema 80-20%\u2013. El overshooting inicial a $800 por d\u00f3lar tuvo como premisa que se mantendr\u00eda el crawling al 2% por los pr\u00f3ximos meses; de ser as\u00ed, el tipo de cambio real para marzo estar\u00eda cerca de $600, por lo que el mercado se pregunta si habr\u00e1 una segunda devaluaci\u00f3n discreta. El ministro de Econom\u00eda, Luis Caputo, lo descart\u00f3, aunque Rofex no parece estar muy convencido. <strong>Esperamos que contin\u00fae la ampliaci\u00f3n de la brecha hasta que se equilibre con el d\u00f3lar impl\u00edcito que pueda surgir del BOPREAL.<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $811,8.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>DNU:<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> la Justicia suspendi\u00f3 con una medida cautelar la reforma laboral del DNU de Milei. Se espera que el Gobierno apele la medida y solicite el traslado al fuero contencioso administrativo.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>FMI: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el vocero presidencial inform\u00f3 que la reuni\u00f3n de Caputo y Posse con el FMI se llevar\u00e1 a cabo ma\u00f1ana. Entre el 31 de enero y el 1 de febrero hay vencimientos con el organismo por USD 2.800 MM.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>BOPREAL: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>hoy se vuelve a ofrecer el bono para importadores Serie 1 que liquida el jueves 11\/1; todav\u00eda no hay informaci\u00f3n oficial sobre la licitaci\u00f3n de ayer.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Saldo en el MULC:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>ayer el BCRA compr\u00f3 USD 142 MM en cambios, acumulando un saldo positivo de USD 231 en lo que va de enero.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>Equity:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el mercado internacional opera nuevamente en negativo luego de que miembros de la Fed sostengan la idea de mantener las tasas altas por m\u00e1s tiempo por temor a aceleraci\u00f3n inflacionaria.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp; de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 04-01-2024 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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