{"id":34357,"date":"2024-01-12T11:13:40","date_gmt":"2024-01-12T14:13:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-12-01-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-04-30T00:23:33","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T03:23:33","slug":"cmf-pre-market-12-01-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-12-01-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 12-01-2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Sorpresa en el IPC<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><em><em><em><em><em>Finalmente la inflaci\u00f3n del \u00faltimo mes de 2023 arroj\u00f3 una variaci\u00f3n de 25,5%, casi 5 puntos por debajo de lo que esperaba el promedio de analistas privados, y casi 2 puntos y medio por debajo de la mediana del REM. Si bien una inflaci\u00f3n por encima del 20% no es motivo de celebraci\u00f3n, cabe destacar que el panorama luc\u00eda bastante m\u00e1s oscuro. A su vez, los datos de alta frecuencia muestran cierta desaceleraci\u00f3n en las \u00faltimas dos semanas, lo que aumenta aun m\u00e1s el optimismo. A pesar de ello, no hay que descartar que los niveles de inflaci\u00f3n seguir\u00e1n siendo muy elevados y probablemente mayores a los vistos el a\u00f1o pasado, por lo menos hasta marzo o abril. Durante el mes de enero y febrero se espera que haya ajustes de tarifas de servicios p\u00fablicos que pondr\u00e1n fuerte presi\u00f3n al IPC, a su vez que continuar\u00e1 la din\u00e1mica de ajuste en combustibles, prepagas, y otros sectores. Mientras tanto, el Gobierno se mantiene firme en cuanto a su pol\u00edtica cambiaria y mantendr\u00e1 el crawling al 2%, con la esperanza de que el tipo de cambio real no se haya apreciado tanto para cuando llegue la cosecha gruesa. Tanto la Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires como la Secretar\u00eda de Agricultura, Ganader\u00eda y Pesca concuerdan en que la campa\u00f1a 2023\/24 ser\u00e1 sustancialmente mejor a la vista el a\u00f1o pasado, fuertemente perjudicada por la sequ\u00eda. En caso de que la inflaci\u00f3n de los pr\u00f3ximos meses sea menor a la esperada y el FX de comercio exterior se sostenga competitivo, el BCRA tendr\u00e1 la oportunidad de comprar divisas y encaminarse al cumplimiento de la nueva meta de acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas por un total de USD 10.000 MM para 2024. <strong>Dado el avance en las negociaciones con el FMI y el dato de inflaci\u00f3n menor al esperado, los bonos soberanos HD se mantienen atractivos.<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el BCRA contin\u00faa con el crawling del 2% y el FX mayorista abre la jornada en $816.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong>BCRA: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el d\u00eda de ayer, el presidente ratific\u00f3 en una entrevista radial su intenci\u00f3n de cerrar el Banco Central y de privatizar el Banco Naci\u00f3n y \u201ctodas las empresas del Estado\u201d.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>BOPREAL: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el Banco Central emiti\u00f3 USD 1.179 MM del bono para importadores Serie 1 que liquida el 18 de enero, llegando a emitir el 26% del total de esta serie. Esta licitaci\u00f3n implicar\u00e1 una contracci\u00f3n de alrededor de 9% de la base monetaria.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Inflaci\u00f3n:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el INDEC public\u00f3 el dato de inflaci\u00f3n de diciembre, que result\u00f3 en 25,5% mensual y 211,4% interanual. La inflaci\u00f3n n\u00facleo fue de 28,3% y los precios regulados aumentaron un 20,7%. El BCRA actualiz\u00f3 el REM, que pronosticaba una inflaci\u00f3n de 27% en diciembre y prev\u00e9 25% en enero, 18,2% en febrero y 15% en marzo.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>YPF:<\/strong> l<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>a petrolera inform\u00f3 que el mi\u00e9rcoles coloc\u00f3 un bono corporativo Ley NY por USD 800 MM, que vence en 2031 y amortiza semestralmente desde 2026. Seg\u00fan el aviso de resultados, el bono est\u00e1 garantizado por exportaciones y sali\u00f3 a una TIR de 9,75%. Por su parte, la jueza Preska rechaz\u00f3 el pedido de Argentina de extender el plazo para la presentaci\u00f3n de avales, por lo que los litigantes podr\u00edan empezar a pedir embargos.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Licitaci\u00f3n:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>si bien el cronograma de licitaciones del MECON a\u00fan no fue publicado, entre hoy y el lunes deber\u00edan conocerse las condiciones de la primera subasta del a\u00f1o para renovar las amortizaciones de S18E4 ($2,16 billones) y X18E4 ($902 mil millones).<\/li><li><strong><strong>Saldo en el MULC:<\/strong> <\/strong>ayer el Banco Central compr\u00f3 USD 117 MM en el MULC y, de esta manera, acumula compras por USD 1.136 MM en lo que va de 2024.<\/li><li><strong>Equity:<\/strong> el mercado internacional opera levemente en negativo en el pre-market, en el comienzo de una nueva temporada de balances. El gigante financiero JP Morgan rompi\u00f3 r\u00e9cords hist\u00f3ricos de ganancias con casi USD 50.000 MM en el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp; de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 12-01-2024 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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