{"id":33858,"date":"2022-08-01T11:06:56","date_gmt":"2022-08-01T14:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-01-08-2022\/"},"modified":"2024-05-14T17:20:59","modified_gmt":"2024-05-14T20:20:59","slug":"cmf-pre-market-01-08-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-01-08-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 01-08-2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Con fe, esperanza y pr\u00e9stamos del exterior?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Comienza la semana con Massa a cargo del nuevo \u201cSuper Ministerio\u201d y son muchos los frente a tener en consideraci\u00f3n. Luego de varias jornadas con diversas especulaciones parece haberse consolidado cierta estabilidad transitoria en t\u00e9rminos pol\u00edticos, con Sergio Massa como la persona con renovado poder pol\u00edtico y capacidad de ejecuci\u00f3n en t\u00e9rminos econ\u00f3micos. Los mercados han tomado de forma positiva esta designaci\u00f3n, con las presiones sobre el CCL cediendo fuertemente el d\u00eda viernes, y un fuerte rebote en los bonos soberanos. La agenda aun luce desafiante. Para confirmar que existe un cambio verdadero y no son solo expectativas futuras, las medidas a anunciar deben contener un plan consistente con la reducci\u00f3n del gasto y limites fiscales. Las conjeturas de c\u00f3mo se llevar\u00e1 a cabo son muchas, se habla de financiamiento externo por parte de bancos, desdoblamiento cambiario y coordinaci\u00f3n de pol\u00edticas en lo relativo a la producci\u00f3n. En ese contexto, el foco en medidas financieras y la falta de \u00e9nfasis en el tema fiscal nos genera una gran preocupaci\u00f3n. A nuestro entender la estabilidad es muy endeble, y s\u00f3lo un cambio definitivo en la din\u00e1mica fiscal\/financiera puede sostenerla.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Mercado de cambios:<\/strong> el FX mayorista abre ARS 131.99 (+24 centavos diarios, equivalente a un ritmo de devaluaci\u00f3n del 66.7% TNA).<\/li><li><strong>Agenda del nuevo Ministerio<\/strong>: tal como se anunci\u00f3 el viernes, a lo largo de esta semana se conocer\u00e1n medidas a llevar a cabo por parte de Sergio Massa y su equipo. El mercado recobr\u00f3 parcialmente la confianza pero para que esto se confirme, la nueva agenda deber\u00eda estar a la altura. Hoy se nombrar\u00e1n a los ayudantes del nuevo equipo del ex presidente de la C\u00e1mara de Diputados.<\/li><li><strong>R\u00e9cord en Rofex<\/strong>: el d\u00eda viernes con el vencimiento del contrato de julio, el volumen en el mercado de futuros se ubic\u00f3 en cifras r\u00e9cord. Seg\u00fan estimaciones de mercado, el BCRA estar\u00eda vendido en aproximadamente US$ 8.000 MM entre MAE y Rofex. Cifra cercana a los l\u00edmites establecidos por el FMI de US$ 9.000 MM.<\/li><li><strong>Flujo a D\u00f3lar Linked<\/strong>: contin\u00faa el flujo neto positivo hac\u00eda los instrumentos atados al d\u00f3lar oficial. El viernes se estima que ingresaron $ 11.500 MM a los FCI. Esto marca que las expectativas de devaluaci\u00f3n para el mediano plazo se van incrementando a medida que el ritmo de crawling se sostiene sistem\u00e1ticamente por debajo de la inflaci\u00f3n. En relaci\u00f3n a las nuevas medidas, se habla de un desdoblamiento cambiario, lo que podr\u00eda afectar fuertemente el rendimiento a futuro de este tipo de t\u00edtulos.<\/li><li><strong>Saldo en el MULC:<\/strong> finalizado el mes de julio, el BCRA cerr\u00f3 el mes con un saldo negativo de USD 1260 MM, el peor desde septiembre 2020. El Banco Central tendr\u00e1 otro mes ajustado en agosto por pago de importaciones de energ\u00eda, pero espera que para septiembre el saldo vuelve a equilibrarse.<\/li><li><strong>Equity:<\/strong> el comienzo del mes de agosto abre con los mercados globales a la baja, luego de uno de los mejores meses de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os. En julio, el S&amp;P500 rebot\u00f3 9.1% desde m\u00ednimos, el Dow Jones Industrial Average subi\u00f3 6.7% y el Nasdaq trep\u00f3 12.3%. Los balances presentados por las compa\u00f1\u00edas han sorprendido en la \u00faltima semana y empujaron los \u00edndices al alza. En el plano local, el mercado espera se\u00f1ales del nuevo equipo econ\u00f3mico.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden\u00a0 de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 01-08-2022 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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