{"id":33816,"date":"2022-09-01T11:39:09","date_gmt":"2022-09-01T14:39:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-01-09-2022\/"},"modified":"2024-04-26T12:23:20","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T15:23:20","slug":"cmf-pre-market-01-09-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-01-09-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 01-09-2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Sobran rumores, faltan certezas<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><em><em>Las especulaciones sobre nuevas medidas cambiarias crecen y se esperan definiciones acerca del verdadero d\u00f3lar \u201csoja\u201d. Por el momento, tal como hemos comentado, las resoluciones conocidas en materia cambiaria ofrecen casi nulos incentivos para el sector agr\u00edcola a liquidar su producci\u00f3n, parte de las promesas de Massa en su asunci\u00f3n radicaban en tener comprometido un gran colch\u00f3n de divisas por parte de dicho sector. Lo cierto es que las condiciones no se han modificado y las reservas del BCRA as\u00ed lo plasman; fuertes rumores indican que para el correr de estos d\u00edas un nuevo \u201cd\u00f3lar soja\u201d podr\u00eda ser anunciado en torno a $200 para el productor y de esta forma comenzar un proceso de desdoblamiento cambiario, el cual ser\u00eda un sustituto de la devaluaci\u00f3n. Por otro lado, finalmente se dio el rolleo de los contratos de d\u00f3lar futuro de agosto para el subsiguiente mes -esto es septiembre-, lo que refuerza la postura anti devaluatoria del BCRA. La din\u00e1mica no parece modificarse mucho en relaci\u00f3n a la \u00e9poca previa a la asunci\u00f3n del nuevo equipo econ\u00f3mico y las autoridades intentan mantener un equilibrio que ya por definici\u00f3n se percibe inestable. Para incrementar reservas y restituir confianza no solo ser\u00e1 necesario el flujo pasajero del agro, sino tambi\u00e9n una mayor demanda de dinero derivada de mejores se\u00f1ales fiscales y econ\u00f3micas en general.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Mercado de cambios: <\/strong>el FX mayorista abre ARS 138.97 (+24 centavos diarios, equivalente a un ritmo de devaluaci\u00f3n del 63.14% TNA).<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Suba de tasas:<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> seg\u00fan diversas fuentes de mercado, el BCRA aumentar\u00eda nuevamente las tasas de inter\u00e9s de referencia en aproximadamente 500 bps. Ser\u00eda la novena suba de tasas en nueve meses y se har\u00eda efectivo luego del dato de inflaci\u00f3n de agosto, el cual se estima entre un 6 y 7%. Los incrementos de tasas anteriores fueron mayores a lo esperado por el mercado.<\/li><li><strong>Se esperan definiciones:<\/strong> sin confirmaciones oficiales por el momento, afirman que se podr\u00eda relanzar el d\u00f3lar \u201csoja\u201d y de esta forma poder obtener entre USD 2.000 MM y USD 5.000 MM por parte del sector del agro. El incentivo radicar\u00eda en el acceso a un tipo de cambio de venta de $200. De todas formas, la brecha cambiaria contin\u00faa preocupando a las autoridades, y el balance cambiario de julio demuestra como incentiva el drenaje de divisas v\u00eda turismo.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Futuros Rofex renovados<\/strong>: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>con el cierre de agosto se especulaba que el BCRA deje vencer los contratos correspondientes a dicho mes y no venda el mes subsiguiente, hecho que alimentaba las proyecciones de devaluaci\u00f3n. Sin embargo, finalmente rolle\u00f3 hacia septiembre y despej\u00f3 dudas de corto plazo. Sin embargo, las TNAs se mantienen elevadas y el mercado espera un incremento en el ritmo de devaluaci\u00f3n. \u00a0<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong>Saldo en el MULC:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>seg\u00fan traders, el d\u00eda de ayer el BCRA nuevamente volvi\u00f3 a acumular reservas por USD 5 MM, acumulando as\u00ed 15 ruedas consecutivas con saldo positivo en el MULC. De todos modos, el saldo de agosto cerrar\u00eda negativo en m\u00e1s de USD 500 MM.<\/li><li><strong><strong>Equity:<\/strong> <\/strong>los mercados globales extienden p\u00e9rdidas y abren nuevamente a la baja. Hoy se conoci\u00f3 el dato de seguro por subsidios de desempleo y el mismo arroj\u00f3 cifras por debajo de lo esperado, sin embargo, las repercusiones son mixtas; buenos datos econ\u00f3micos indicar\u00edan que la Fed tiene mayor espacio para estresar las condiciones financieras incrementando fuertemente las tasas de inter\u00e9s. Por otro lado, en Europa sigue la preocupaci\u00f3n por las importaciones de energ\u00eda y se espera una aceleraci\u00f3n en la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp; de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 01-09-2022 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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