{"id":33810,"date":"2022-09-07T10:28:39","date_gmt":"2022-09-07T13:28:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/cmf-pre-market-07-09-2022\/"},"modified":"2024-04-26T12:23:16","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T15:23:16","slug":"cmf-pre-market-07-09-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bancocmf.com.ar\/en\/cmf-pre-market-07-09-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"CMF PRE-MARKET 07-09-2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><strong>\u00c9xito parcial<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><em><em><em><em><em>La respuesta del agro al d\u00f3lar \u201csoja\u201d el d\u00eda de ayer mejor\u00f3 sustancialmente con respecto al d\u00eda lunes, y gener\u00f3 entusiasmo en el equipo econ\u00f3mico . Sumado a esto, ayer se confirm\u00f3 un nuevo acuerdo con el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) por USD 3.000 MM, y Massa se llev\u00f3 elogios del titular del organismo, Claver-Carone. En cuanto a las reservas, el d\u00eda martes no pudo haber sido m\u00e1s alentador, ya que gracias a la liquidaci\u00f3n del campo el BCRA pudo acumular USD 140 MM netos. Si bien parecer\u00eda ser que lo de ayer fue s\u00f3lo el comienzo de mayores montos de liquidaci\u00f3n, el gobierno deber\u00e1 encontrar una soluci\u00f3n al subsidio impl\u00edcito generado por la brecha; otra cuesti\u00f3n a revisar, que probablemente genere problemas en el corto plazo son las presiones de otros sectores por obtener una mejora en sus condiciones de liquidaci\u00f3n. Por \u00faltimo, cabe recordar que la medida del d\u00f3lar \u201csoja\u201d es s\u00f3lo transitoria hasta fines de septiembre, por lo que s\u00f3lo ser\u00eda un est\u00edmulo de corto plazo con muy poca incidencia sobre la inversi\u00f3n y el producto futuro. \u00bfSe pueden esperar medidas de mediano-largo plazo, o el gobierno seguir\u00e1 tomando acciones reactivas cortoplacistas hasta llegar a las elecciones?<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Mercado de cambios: <\/strong>el FX mayorista abre ARS 140.88 (+32 centavos diarios, equivalente a un ritmo de devaluaci\u00f3n del 83.09% TNA).<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Gran liquidaci\u00f3n: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>El d\u00eda de ayer se liquidaron 1.3 millones toneladas de soja, equivalentes a USD 320 MM -monto 60% superior al m\u00e1ximo en 5 a\u00f1os alcanzado el d\u00eda anterior-. Se estima que el BCRA tuvo que emitir ARS 38.000 MM netos por la compra venta de d\u00f3lares del d\u00eda de ayer.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>Acuerdo BID: <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Massa logr\u00f3 acordar un nuevo pr\u00e9stamo con el BID por USD 3.000 MM, con desembolsos entre 2022 y 2023. El primer ingreso de d\u00f3lares ser\u00e1 el 30 de septiembre por USD 500 MM, que ayudar\u00edan a reforzar reservas e intentar cumplir la meta con el FMI; y para el 30 de diciembre se espera otra transferencia por USD 700 MM. Los USD 1.800 MM restantes, ser\u00e1n recibidos a partir de 2023.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Suba del crawling:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>El BCRA aceler\u00f3 el ritmo de devaluaci\u00f3n del peso con respecto a semanas anteriores; actualmente se encuentra en 70% TNA, mientras que el promedio de los \u00faltimos meses era ~60%. De todos modos, el mercado de futuros ajust\u00f3 sus proyecciones a la baja por mejores montos de liquidaci\u00f3n y baja de expectativas de devaluaci\u00f3n del tipo de cambio oficial.<\/li><li><strong><strong><strong><strong>Saldo en el MULC:<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>el d\u00eda de ayer, el BCRA culmin\u00f3 la jornada con compras por USD 140 MM aproximadamente. Fue la primer rueda de gran acumulaci\u00f3n luego de establecido el d\u00f3lar \u201csoja\u201d. Tal como se comenta previamente, si bien se acumulan reservas, se produce una gran emisi\u00f3n monetaria dado el diferencial entre el d\u00f3lar A3500 y el correspondiente a las liquidaciones de soja.<\/li><li><strong><strong>Equity:<\/strong> <\/strong>los mercados globales abren mayormente negativos en Europa y en EE.UU. Para el d\u00eda de ma\u00f1ana se espera una suba de las tasas de inter\u00e9s por parte del ECB de 75 bps, seg\u00fan analistas, sumado a la crisis energ\u00e9tica el combo este podr\u00eda llevar a una recesi\u00f3n mas fuerte en la zona euro. Hoy, diferentes miembros de la Fed expondr\u00e1n en entrevistas y eventos, se destaca la participaci\u00f3n de Brainard.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Este informe ha sido elaborado a t\u00edtulo informativo. El presente NO debe ser tomado como una recomendaci\u00f3n o instrucci\u00f3n, y no reviste car\u00e1cter de ofertas de productos y\/o servicios ni solicitud de orden&nbsp; de compra y\/o venta. Banco CMF S.A. no ser\u00e1 responsable por ning\u00fan error y\/u omisi\u00f3n del contenido.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Copyright \u00a9 2017 Banco CMF S.A. All rights reserved.<\/em><\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. Recordatorio de eventos del calendario econ\u00f3mico mensual. Apertura de futuros de USA, US Tr. 10yr y precios de commodities relevantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":32490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pre-market-daily-close-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMF PRE-MARKET 07-09-2022 - Banco CMF - Banco Corporativo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Descripci\u00f3n de la tendencia de apertura de mercados en Europa y cierre en Asia. 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